Research and Publications

Press ReleaseRBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Nowcasting Indian GDP growth using a Dynamic Factor Model @Soumya Bhadury Saurabh Ghosh Pankaj Kumar Abstract 1In India, the first official estimate of quarterly GDP is released approximately 7-8 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To provide an early estimate of current quarter GDP growth, we construct single-index dynamic factors (DFs) using a sequentially expanding list of 6, 9 and 12 high-frequency indicators.

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Construction of Bivariate Fan Chart from Joint Distribution Purnima Shaw@ Abstract 1A fan chart, which depicts uncertainties in projections of macroeconomic variables, is presently limited to univariate framework. However, to illustrate the uncertainties in forecasts of two mutually dependent variables, a bivariate framework is required. Using a joint distribution of two related variables, this paper proposes a theory for

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Exchange Rate Pass-through in Emerging Economies @Michael Debabrata Patra, Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam and Joice John Abstract 1This paper provides updated estimates of exchange rate pass through (ERPT) for 17 emerging market economies (EMEs) that constitute around 75 per cent of total EME output. These estimates are robust with respect to methodological biases encountered in the literature. Average ERPT to consumer inflation

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 Robust Wald-type Test Statistics based on Minimum C-divergence Estimators @Avijit Maji Leandro Pardo Abstract *Recently introduced C-divergence estimators as well as the associated test statis-tics have shown a good robustness behavior. However, one shortcoming of these test statistics is that their asymptotic distribution, in general, is not a chi-square distri-bution but a linear combination of chi-square distributions.

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 05 Term Premium Spillover from the US to Indian Markets Archana Dilip* Abstract #The paper estimates and analyses term premium in India and makes an assessment of the interconnectedness and transmission of shocks from the US term structure of sovereign bond yields to that of India. The term premium is estimated by decomposing the yield into two components – risk-neutral rate which reflects expectations of future short-term ra

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 04 Macroeconomic Forecasting in India:Does Machine Learning Hold the Key to Better Forecasts?Bhanu Pratap, Shovon Sengupta* Abstract#Forecasting of macroeconomic indicators is a challenging task, compounded by complex processes and dynamic nature of the macroeconomy. With recent advancements in computing power and the advent of data, machine learning methods have been explored as an alternative to traditional forecasting meth

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Does Financial Cycle Exist in India? @Harendra Behera, Saurabh Sharma Abstract #The paper tries to identify the existence of financial cycle in India by examining its main characteristics. Using three distinct methods – turning point analysis, spectral analysis and band-pass filter – and quarterly data on credit, equity prices, house prices and real exchange rate for the period 1960:Q1 through 2018:Q4, the cyclical propert

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Cross-border Trade Credit: A Post-Crisis Empirical Analysis for India @Rajeev Jain, Dhirendra Gajbhiye and Soumasree Tewari Abstract *The paper profiles trade credit extended by domestic and foreign banks to Indian importers, focusing on its size, composition and cost pattern. Using a panel data of 55 banks for 2007-08:Q1 to 2016-17:Q4, the paper finds that both demand and supply-side factors influence the flow of trade c

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Inflation Expectations of Households: Do They Influence Wage-Price Dynamics in India? @Sitikantha Pattanaik, Silu Muduli and Soumyajit Ray Abstract 1This paper examines the usefulness of survey-based information on inflation expectations of households in the analysis of inflation dynamics in India. As household inflation expectations do not satisfy the statistical properties of rationality and unbiasedness, hybrid versions

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 Measuring Financial Capability of the Street Vendors @D.V. Ramana and Silu Muduli Abstract 1Financial capability of an individual is the ability to use and manage financial products for current and future financial needs with adequate financial knowledge. This paper examines financial capability on four dimensions- financial management to meet current needs, future financial planning, financial products management, and fin

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 05 India’s Investment Cycle: An Empirical Investigation @Janak Raj Satyananda Sahoo and Shiv Shankar Abstract 1This study estimates the duration of the investment cycle and examines the determinants of investment activity in India. Using the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dating procedure, the study finds that the real investment rate in India followed a three-year cycle during the period from 1950-51 to 2017-18

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 04 Economic Activity and its Determinants: A Panel Analysis of Indian States @Garima Wahi and Muneesh Kapur Abstract 1This paper assesses the impact of both monetary and fiscal policy along with other macroeconomic determinants on economic activity using state-level Indian data. Since economic activity can vary across states due to local factors and state government policies, a state-level empirical analysis, by providing mor

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Rural Wage Dynamics in India: What Role does Inflation Play? @Sujata Kundu Abstract 1This paper studies the relationship between rural wage growth and inflation in India to assess the risk of a wage-price spiral to the inflation trajectory. The results of a cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) show that in the long-run both nominal agricultural wages and non-agricultural wages exhibit statistically signif

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Non-Linear, Asymmetric and Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India @Michael Debabrata Patra Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam andJoice John Abstract Exploring nonlinearities and time variations in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in India for the period from April 2005 to March 2016, this paper finds ERPT is asymmetric with pass-through from small depreciations being the strongest. ER

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Operating Performance of Initial Public Offering Firms after Issue in India – A Revisit @Avdhesh Kumar Shukla and Tara Shankar Shaw Abstract *The paper examines how the operating performance of the Indian firms changed after their initial public offerings. It is found that the operating performance does not deteriorate post IPOs, if a performance indicator like “profit” is normalised by sales volumes (i.e., return on sales

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 08 Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis @Harendra Behera Garima Wahi and Muneesh Kapur Abstract 1This paper revisits the issue of determinants of inflation in India in a Phillips curve framework and makes two key contributions in relation to existing studies. First, in the context of the Reserve Bank moving towards a flexible inflation targeting framework based on consumer price index (CPI)

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 07 What Explains Call Money Rate Spread in India? @Sunil Kumar Anand Prakash Krishna M Kushawaha Abstract 1The study focuses on various drivers of overnight inter-bank rate spread under the new liquidity management framework during July 2013 to December 2016. Applying OLS with Newey-West estimator and various GARCH models to daily data, the study finds that liquidity conditions, viz., deficit, distribution and uncertainty imp

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 Risk-weighting under Standardised Approach of Computation of Capital for Credit Risk in Basel Framework – An Analysis of Default Experience of Credit Rating Agencies in India @Ajay Kumar Choudhary B Nethaji Anirban Basu Abstract 1All scheduled commercial banks in India currently follow the Standardised Approach of computation of capital for credit risk under Basel framework for calculation of regulatory capital requirement

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 05 Comparison of Consumer and Wholesale Prices Indices in India: An Analysis of Properties and Sources of Divergence @Praggya Das and Asish Thomas George Abstract ♣ A key feature of the inflationary process during 2015-16 was the large divergence in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation. The CPI-WPI divergence resulted in considerable debate amongst policy makers and academia on its causes a

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 04 Corporate Leverage in EMEs: Has the Global Financial Crisis Changed the Determinants? @Snehal S. Herwadkar Abstract 1Has the global financial crisis changed the pivotal determinants of corporate leverage in EMEs? This paper attempts to address this issue using a panel-GMM framework and quantile-analysis for 10 major EMEs. Analysing 19-year database covering the period 1996-2014, the study finds that enabling conditions in